Home > Review Articles > The impact of New Zealand CVD risk chart adjustments for family history and ethnicity on eligibility for treatment (PREDICT CVD-5)

The impact of New Zealand CVD risk chart adjustments for family history and ethnicity on eligibility for treatment (PREDICT CVD-5)

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Authors:
Summary:

New Zealand cardiovascular (CVD) risk management guidelines support targeted treatment to patients with a high 5-year CVD risk and recommend a 5% upward adjustment for some high-risk population subgroups. This study estimated the impact of these adjustments on eligibility for treatment in a primary care setting, using data from CVD risk assessments involving 23,709 patients visiting their primary care provider in Auckland, New Zealand, between 2002 and 2006. Baseline CVD risks were calculated with and without the 5% upward adjustment for family history of premature ischaemic CVD or for being of Mäori, Pacific or Indian subcontinent ethnicity. Baseline CVD risks were calculated for 23,693 patients (99.9%); 90% were aged between 35 and 74 years. Unadjusted risk scores revealed that 70% of patients were below the 10% 5-year risk threshold for specific individualised treatment; 11 % were between the 10 to 15% risk (recommended to receive individualised lifestyle counselling in general practice) and 19% had a >15% risk (recommended for drug treatment and referral to a dietician in addition to individualised lifestyle counselling). Over 25% of patients had a premature family history of CVD; 21% were Mäori, Pacific, or Indian subcontinent – adjusted risk scores increased the numbers eligible for drug treatment, intensive lifestyle management, and dietician referral by approximately 20% and individualised lifestyle assessment and counselling by 50%.

Comment:
This is the fifth paper in the series on PREDICT – a web-based clinical decision support system for opportunistic screening of CVD in general practice. Importantly, the authors note that adjusting CVD risk scores with the addition of family history or Mäori, Pacifica or Indian ethnicity significantly increased the number of people who would be eligible (and may benefit from) risk factor management. As a result, initial costs to the patient and health system (for medications, staff, programmes) will increase. However, these could possibly be offset by long term benefits/costs reductions at the treatment end of the CVD pathway as well as the huge impact on quality of life for people who have CVD risk managed appropriately.
Reference: N Z Med J. 2007;120(1261):U2712
Independent commentary by Dr. Matire Hardwood

Dr Matire Harwood (Ngapuhi) has worked in Hauora Māori, primary health and rehabilitation settings as clinician and researcher since graduating from Auckland Medical School in 1994. She also holds positions on a number of boards, committees and advisory groups including the Health Research Council. Matire lives in Auckland with her whānau including partner Haunui and two young children Te Rangiura and Waimarie.

Research Review publications are intended for New Zealand health professionals.

Disclaimer: This publication is not intended as a replacement for regular medical education but to assist in the process. The reviews are a summarised interpretation of the published study and reflect the opinion of the writer rather than those of the research group or scientific journal. It is suggested readers review the full trial data before forming a final conclusion on its merits.

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