A risk score based on non-biochemical parameters was evaluated for its accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes, using a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk) of 25,639 participants aged 40–79 years recruited from UK general practices who attended a health check between 1993 and 1998. The Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score was computed for 24,495 individuals with baseline data on age, sex, prescription of steroids and antihypertensive medication, family history of diabetes, body mass index and smoking status. At a mean 5-year follow-up, there were 323 new cases of diabetes; a cumulative incidence of 2.76/1000 person-years. Those in the top quintile of risk were 22 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quintile. In all, 54% of all clinically incident cases occurred in individuals in the top quintile of risk (risk score >0.37). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 74.5%.
