These researchers estimated the impacts of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031) compared with no tax increases from 2011 in New Zealand, where there are large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease burden. Sixteen tobacco-related diseases were modelled in parallel using national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n=4.4 million). Compared to the 2011 cohort exposed to no tax increases, 260,000 QALYs were gained among those exposed to annual tobacco tax increases from 2011 to 2031. Cost savings associated with this intervention amounted to US$2,550 million over the remainder of the 2011 population’s life. QALY gains and cost savings took 50 years to peak. The QALY gains per capita associated with annual tobacco tax increases were 3.7-fold higher for Māori compared with non-Māori because of higher rates of smoking and price sensitivity among Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in mortality rates among Māori and non-Māori aged 45+ years were projected to be 2.31% lower in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared with no tax rises. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45–64-yearold women (3.01%).
