Home > Review Articles > Ethnicity data > Regional and ethnic projections of gastric cancer incidence in Aotearoa New Zealand to 2045: identifying opportunities for targeted action

Regional and ethnic projections of gastric cancer incidence in Aotearoa New Zealand to 2045: identifying opportunities for targeted action

Making Education Easy

From Māori Health Review Issue 122
Authors:
  • Walsh M et al.
Summary:

A modelling study has found that absolute gastric cancer cases in New Zealand are projected to increase, particularly in Māori and Pacific peoples and in regions experiencing rapid population growth. The New Zealand Cancer Registry was used to identify gastric cancer registrations from 2001 to 2022 and link these to population estimates and projections. By 2045, gastric cancer cases were predicted to reach approximately 725 per year, a 47.7% increase on current numbers, despite the age-standardised rate decreasing from 5.9 to 5.3 per 100,000. Increased absolute numbers were seen for all regions, with the Northern Region showing the largest rise. By ethnic group, the highest current incidence and proportional increase in projected cases was seen for Māori and Pacific peoples, although there was a modest decline in incidence rates for all ethnic groups.

Comment:
While lung, breast and colorectal cancers remain the leading causes of cancer mortality, gastric cancer disproportionately affects Māori and Pacific peoples and carries substantial morbidity through gastrectomy alongside premature mortality – so these predictions are concerning. As discussed in the last issue of Māori Health Review, addressing Helicobacter pylori infection will reduce these inequities through primary prevention.
Reference: N Z Med J. 2026;139(1634):51-64.
Abstract
Download Article
Independent commentary by Dr. Matire Hardwood

Dr Matire Harwood (Ngapuhi) has worked in Hauora Māori, primary health and rehabilitation settings as clinician and researcher since graduating from Auckland Medical School in 1994. She also holds positions on a number of boards, committees and advisory groups including the Health Research Council. Matire lives in Auckland with her whānau including partner Haunui and two young children Te Rangiura and Waimarie.

Research Review publications are intended for New Zealand health professionals.

Disclaimer: This publication is not intended as a replacement for regular medical education but to assist in the process. The reviews are a summarised interpretation of the published study and reflect the opinion of the writer rather than those of the research group or scientific journal. It is suggested readers review the full trial data before forming a final conclusion on its merits.

Related Articles

Reducing rates of preterm and early-term singleton births safely in Australia
Reducing rates of preterm and early-term singleton births safely in Australia

An Australian national preterm birth prevention programme led to meaningful reductions in preterm and early-term

Find out more
Declining incidence of atrial fibrillation-associated ischemic stroke in Auckland, New Zealand
Declining incidence of atrial fibrillation-associated ischemic stroke in Auckland, New Zealand

An analysis of Auckland Regional Community Stroke study data found that although the incidence of

Find out more
Gastric cancer survival (in)equity from 2002 to 2021: examining demographic and clinical characteristics among Māori and non-Māori
Gastric cancer survival (in)equity from 2002 to 2021: examining demographic and clinical characteristics among Māori and non-Māori

While gastric cancer mortality risk is still higher for Māori compared with non Māori, this

Find out more
View All Reviews

Explore Māori Health Reviews

Dive into our publications and videos content from over 50 areas of medicine including Cardiology, Diabetes, Oncology, Haematology and Psychiatry. 

Reviews

It looks like you are closest to our Australia site.

Australia
Australia
Stay on this site
Find Reviews in Your Clinical Area
Please select your country of practice.
New Zealand
Australia
Terms and Conditions

Website terms of use 

By using our website, you agree to follow these terms and conditions. 

 

Privacy policy 

We take your privacy seriously. To understand how we collect, use, and protect your information, please read our Privacy Policy, which is part of these terms. 

 

Copyright and use of website content 

The content of our website is protected by copyright, trademarks, and other legal rights. You can: view, download, or print a single copy of content for your personal or professional use. 

You cannot:  copy, modify, or distribute website content, or use our website content for commercial purposes or in other works without permission. 

 

Links to third-party websites 

The Research Review website may link to third-party websites for your convenience. However: 

We do not endorse or approve their products, services, or actions. 

We are not responsible for their content or how they operate. 

There is no formal partnership between us and third parties unless we clearly state otherwise. 

 

Disclaimer and limitation of liability 

We do our best to keep the information on our website accurate, but we do not guarantee that it is always correct or up to date. 

To the fullest extent allowed by law, we are not responsible for: 

Any loss, damage, or costs you may suffer from using (or being unable to use) our website. 

Any decisions you make based on the information provided. 

Any business losses, such as lost profits, lost data, or business interruptions. 

 

Governing law 

These terms are governed by New Zealand law. If there is a dispute, it must be resolved in a New Zealand court.