A retrospective analysis of 2182 patients aged <40 years who were hospitalised in New Zealand for acute rheumatic fever between 1989 and 2012 found that 13.6% had experienced progression to recurrent acute rheumatic fever, rheumatic heart disease or circulatory death by the end of 2015. After 26.8 years of theoretical follow-up, the probability of disease progression from acute rheumatic fever was 24% and the probability of death was 1%. However, progression occurred sooner and was more than twice as likely in Māori or Pasifika patients. Only 17.8% of 435 patients with rheumatic heart disease had previously been hospitalised for acute rheumatic fever. The authors argue that a national patient register could help to monitor, prevent and reduce acute rheumatic fever progression.
