Smoking prevalence data from the New Zealand 2013 Census reported a lower than expected smoking prevalence, especially for Māori. These data were combined with smoking prevalence data from the New Zealand 2006 Census to upgrade projections on future smoking prevalence in New Zealand to inform policy around tobacco endgame planning. Between the 2006 and 2013 censuses (adjusted for no tax rises since 2010), initiation of daily smoking by age 20 years decreased annually by 3.4% (95% uncertainty interval 3.2% to 3.6%) and 2.7% (2.5% to 2.8%) for non-Māori men and women, and by 2.9% (2.6% to 3.2%) and 3.2% (2.9% to 3.5%) for Māori, respectively. Annual net smoking cessation rates ranged from 3.7% to 7.7% across demographic groups. These data led to revised projected smoking prevalence rates for 2025 of 18.7% and 19.3% for Māori men and women, and 8.3% and 6.4% for non-Māori, respectively. The study authors point out that in these projections, smoking prevalence below 5% by 2025 is not attained by any demographic group.
