A modelling study has found that the Aoteoroa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori. The Action Plan involves: 1) legislating for de-nicotinisation of retail tobacco; 2) a 95% reduction in retail outlets; and 3) people born after 2005 being unable to legally purchase tobacco. A Markov model was used to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, along with mortality and health-adjusted life years (HALYs). The full Action Plan (plus media promotion) would reduce adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Māori, and from 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Māori. The target smoking prevalence of 5% was forecast to be achieved in 2026 for Māori males and in 2027 for Māori females. The HALYs gain for the full Action Plan over the population’s remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594,000, with de-nicotinisation alone achieving 97% of these HALYs. The full Action Plan was forecast to reduce the gap between Māori and non-Māori all-cause mortality for people aged at least 45 years by 22.9% among females and 9.6% among males by 2040.
