These researchers used two peer-reviewed simulation models, 1) a dynamic population forecasting model for smoking prevalence and 2) a closed cohort multi-state life-table model for future health gains and costs by sex, age and ethnicity, to analyse the impacts of restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies providing cessation advice, an intervention that could arguably accelerate progress towards the tobacco endgame in New Zealand. Compared with no such action, this intervention was associated with reductions in future smoking prevalence among both Māori and non-Māori by 2025. Moreover, this intervention accrued an estimated 41,700 discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the remainder of the lives of the New Zealand population projected from 2011. The majority (74%) of QALYs gained were linked to the provision of cessation advice over and above the limiting of sales to pharmacies.
